Nikolas Kozloff

Apr 13, 2012 7:33 PM EDT

BRUSSELS - President Hugo Chavez returns this weekend after a cancer treatment in Cuba, back to Venezuela. Since it is an election campaign full of question marks to wait. One thing is certain: the opposition is stronger than ever.
"We are all praying for a speedy recovery for our Comandante," says the diehard chavista Glenda Colmenares to the Financial Times . "We are going through difficult times, but we must trust that President Chavez is here again thyself. Without him there is no revolution. " The Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez (57) must be re-treated for cancer. In late February, he has in Cuba, the country of his hero Fidel Castro, a malignant tumor in the abdomen removed. Last year also happened that al Details on the type of cancer are a state secret, so the rumor mill in full swing. Has the cancer spread to the organs and bone marrow, such as Wikileaks leaked documents suggest? How does Chavez have to live? That discussion, the 27 million people daily in the grip of Venezuela. The head of state himself denies emphatically that it has spread. But this weekend when he goes back to Venezuela, is a new chemotherapy him to wait, so he weakened his re-election campaign begins. Hope On October 7, President Chavez wants his opponents 'crush'. The Venezuelans must believe that he is fit himself for a third time to follow. From his sickbed in Havana, the president advised his cabinet in Caracas. His duties temporarily transferred to a replacement was not done. He remained at the helm and a plan B was not an issue. In his own words he restored "like a condor. With the regularity of the clock he sent tweets around the world, and in a two-hour television message he laughed and he sang songs to his people at ease. But given the credibility of Chavez a dent, because he was last year early cancer was declared. In 1998, the former army officer to power in Venezuela. The charismatic Chavez promised the 'Bolivarian revolution', which he describes as "socialism of the 21st century." The name refers to the South American independence fighter Simon Bolivar. Chavez nationalized large parts of the economy, including the lucrative oil sector. The petrodollars he used for his promise of a socialist utopia for the poorest to realize. But what about Venezuela, after thirteen years? The country has the highest murder rate in all of South America. In 2011 there were 19,336 people killed, that's a new record of 53 per day. Among the 29 million people circulate about 12 million weapons. Moreover, the impunity is very high. NGOs estimate that 91% of the murder investigations the accused goes free. Moreover, the economy barely growing, inflation is high and there is food scarcity. "Of course there are problems," says the Belgian Michel Collon, author of Les 7 Péchés d'Hugo Chavez . "But the standard of living in Venezuela continues to rise and poverty has dropped sharply. Chavez gives hope to all ordinary people. This is a message that the western media never gets. " poor Armando Janssens (78), an Antwerp priest for over forty years ago an NGO and a nation founded Bank in Caracas, is critical of his new homeland. "The promise of major advances Chavez has not been fulfilled," he says on the phone from Venezuela. "People hear no evil, speak a word about Chavez, but his incompetent government. The social programs hang with hooks and eyes together. " According to Jones, there are certainly good business in Venezuela realized, as the pension for the elderly. "But major initiatives in education and health care in recent years weakened. The health houses in disadvantaged neighborhoods are dilapidated or are abandoned. The Mercal, where you will receive discounts on basic food, are long lines due to scarcity. That's poor for a modern state. " Janssens also saves the criticism is not Chavez. "He's very valuable points left and has achieved good things in social matters. But he has an authoritative voice excited and is gone the wrong way. In economic terms, Chavez has created a society that is not feasible. Everything is concentrated in the state. All power is centralized. Everything continues to stagnate. The citizens dare not take the initiative, because nobody knows what tomorrow will bring. Venezuela relies on oil revenues, but not on their own or on their own industry. Such a state is doomed to fail. " Energetic rival for the first time the opposition, which in the past only a shared distaste for Chavez had in common, united in the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD). According to analysts, is a common candidate is a safe bet, the opposition is stronger than ever. Henrique Capriles, the 39-year-old lawyer and governor of the state of Miranda, came to the primaries as the winner. Chavez's challenger has a large following among the middle class. But in the popular neighborhood he knows how to charm the Venezuelans. According to Janssens are also the people to find people for change. "Thirteen years of the same figure, which is long. Some Venezuelans are tired of Chavez. " Capriles itself as center-left, progressive and a proponent of a free market economy with a strong social impact. The contrast between the weak, almost twenty years older Chavez and energetic rival, the opposition well. Michel Collon is deliberately misleading marketing. "Actually Capriles is a right-wing party. This billionaire - his family made ​​fortune in construction, banking and the media - has in 2002 participated in a coup against Chavez, "says Collon. "With violence was when the Cuban embassy stormed because government employees in hiding. His campaign is supported by the U.S., which pumps billions of dollars in an anti-Chavez candidate. " The origin of the awkward relationship between Caracas and Washington goes back to the Clinton days. Chavez opposes the neoliberal politics that is dominated by the U.S. government, World Bank and the IMF, but also against U.S. foreign policy. Yet Washington is an important trading partner for the top oil exporter in South America. Venezuela produces daily 2.5 to 3,000,000 barrels of oil per day. About 1 million barrels will still be exported to the U.S.. Provocation Chavez, the maverick, the warning is not provocation. His Iranian colleague Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a good friend. That nuclear weapons would make Iran, Chavez called a lie. That other international pariah, Syria, according to him again the victim of imperialist aggression. " And he has a unique time zone in Venezuela, which derogated from the rest of the Latin American continent. With less than seven months to go until the election is the political tension. Venezuela is deeply divided between the chavista and non-chavista's, and, according to Armando Jannsens even "on the brink of civil war." At a recent meeting of the opposition in the slums in the north of Caracas became a supporter injured in an attack of chavista on motorcycles. For now this is the only violent incident. But the International Crisis Group fears for political violence in an election defeat. So far it has not. Chavez is in the lead in the polls - according to the agency Consultores even with over 57%. Capriles, a gap of twenty to thirty percentage points seen close to drive. Anyway Chavez stands for his toughest reelection campaign. His Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) lost two years ago, an absolute majority in parliament. Nervously , the once inexhaustible Chavez will post a new cancer treatment a little easier to do anyway. The chavista are nervous for the first time. El Comandante will probably be confined to a virtual campaign. The question marks about his health will continue to haunt him. And what are the undecided? Chavez can pull them over the line and convince them that it lasts at least another six years? According Nikolas Kozloff, Venezuela expert from New York, Chavez brings the overall outlook for the Bolivarian Revolution in danger so much attention on themselves. "Instead of focusing on extending his power, he had more time spent on grooming a successor. What Venezuela at this time really needs is a credible candidate to the left of Chavez, but alas, at this time nobody considered. "

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